Close to 37 bcm of LNG production lost in 8 months to August

In the first eight months of 2022 close to 37 bcm of LNG production was lost due to planned or unplanned events, a 7% increase on the same period in 2021, according to a new IEA report.

Unplanned outages accounted for more than two-thirds of the total outage volume, it states in its Global Gas Security Review 2022.

The biggest unplanned losses during the first eight months occurred in the United States (due to a fire at Freeport), Algeria (due to turbine damage at Arzew), Norway (due to protracted repairs at Hammerfest LNG following a fire in 2020) and Australia (due to mechanical issues and worker strikes at Prelude).

The extended shutdown of the 20 bcm Freeport LNG terminal due to a fire in June has been the most significant outage event so far in 2022. Freeport is the second largest liquefaction terminal in the United States, accounting for a fifth of total US LNG exports prior to the incident.

Gas demand growth from the industrial sector, which strongly recovered in early 2021, is being severely affected by tight supply and spiralling spot prices.

Asia’s gas consumption growth has slowed markedly so far in 2022 - China’s gas consumption increased by less than 1% year-on-year, while Japan was flat - as a result of  high LNG prices, Covid-related disruptions in China in H1 and mild winter temperatures across Northeast Asia earlier in the year.

Demand could see a ”modest recovery” to 3% growth in 2023 on the assumption of a normalising Covid situation and rebounding economic activity in China, and a return to modest expansion in India and emerging Asia (after declines in both in 2022), the report adds, but it expects the recovery to be uneven.

While US natural gas demand still sees some growth (4% year-on-year, January to August), a slowdown is expected next year, close to a 1% decline.

Natural gas consumption in Canada increased by an estimated 8% in the first half of 2022, led by a marked upturn in wholesale demand for power generation and industrial uses (together up 7%). This increase was set in motion by coal-to-gas switching in the power sector due to the accelerated coal phase-out in the province of Alberta.

Brazil’s natural gas demand declined by an estimated 12% year-on-year during the first half of 2022, driven by improved hydro conditions for power generation, while Columbia and Central America and the Caribbean both recorded 9% growth.